Federal Reserve interest rate decision looms over bitcoin's fourth quarter, Nexo reports

Bitcoin concluded the third quarter with a 42.7 percent gain, rising from $58,544 to $83,570 following an August 19 announcement by the United States Treasury to double its purchases of long-dated bonds. That macro intervention lowered bond yields and lifted broader risk assets, according to Nexo's "Digital Assets in Q4: Market Outlook" report published on October 21, 2026.

Market focus has now shifted to the Federal Reserve's rate decision scheduled for October 28. United States spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which attracted $2.65 billion in net inflows during September, turned to net outflows in October amid policy uncertainty. CME FedWatch data from October 15 reflected a 68 percent probability of rates remaining unchanged and a 32 percent chance of an increase, following a September annual inflation print of 3.7 percent and 30-year Treasury yields hovering near 5.6 percent.

From a technical perspective, the third-quarter advance formed a potential double bottom pattern with a neckline at $82,000. However, a recent weekly close at $80,900 fell back below that threshold, leaving the setup unconfirmed. The report adds that the proportion of circulating bitcoin held in profit rose from 46 percent at the June low to roughly 69 percent.